资本热潮如同猛虎般吞噬中国芯片小公司，芯片概念股一览如星辰大海
作者：包永刚
编辑：王亚峰
继芯片掐脖子技术成为全民关注焦点后，2021年，芯片投资成为了全民讨论的话题。诺安基金经理蔡嵩松因重仓半导体而被捧为明星基金经理。二级市场的火热直接反应出国内半导体投资的热度。
云岫资本整理数据显示，2019年国内半导体行业投资金额为300亿元，2020年猛增至1400亿元，创下历史记录。预计2021年全年会达到1500亿元。
国内半导体投资火热背后，不仅诞生了几家千亿市值的中国芯片公司，也出现了数十家一年融资5亿元的芯片初创公司，为中国芯片尤其是国产高端芯片发展注入动力。
但同时，资本热潮加速了中国芯片产业并购潮到来。
一位国产CPU行业高管认为：“在产业链里绝大多数芯片公司都会死掉，被并购是最好的命运。”
这种判断是否经得起推敲？雨露均沾的芯片资本市场何时进入马太效应？并购潮会以什么样的方式出现？
残酷降临前夜：上市公司万亿市值、千亿投资
国内半导体发展和投资经历了几次浪潮。大规模投入始于2014年的国家集成电路产业投资基金（简称大基金）的成立。在大基金带动下，全域半导体投资总额持续增加。由于美国对中兴和华为制裁，加上提升国产自主化率需求，再次刺激了对以chip代表硬科技企业关注。
但遇2018年的新规，一级市场募资额和投入额都下降，大幅影响内外两市共振，最终导致20020年度再次增长。云岫合伙人兼首席技术官赵占祥认为：“科创板开板后的科创板带领一级市场走出寒冬。”
科创板设立，是落实创新驱动战略、推进经济高质量发展、支持上海国际金融中心与科技创新中心建设重大改革举措之一。在7月22日开启之际，有5家chip初创公开发行挂牌上市。而至7月22日两周年纪念之际，当期受理91家half industry chain company申请，其中有32个挂牌交易，上市32个总市值约12500亿，其中19个超百亿，如中微、中润微等三巨头超过千亿。
华登副总裁苏东说，“过去10-15年内很难看到收入超过10亿美金的chip company，但2021很多chip 上市company达到了这个水平。”
此后，又有数house chip in the market.
Wind截至11月29日数据显示，在362house companies of the Chiense stock market, 56 are half companies. The top ten largest Chiense house companies by value, half companies occupy a significant portion.
“The semi industry is a long cycle high investment industry. The KoChuang board has proven that investing in chips can be profitable but whether it will continue to attract capital?”
Capital is flowing towards head chip companies and big chip projects as they need high investments. “There were more than 400 deals in 2020 and over 600 deals this year. Early stage projects are increasing.”
Many listed semiconductor firms have seen their revenue grow at least 50% or even double-digit growth showing profitability beyond just funding heat.
However, some disagree such as Xiaomi's Wang Nan who believes there was no auto driving hot spot in terms of funding nor business progress.
Only large XPU like GPU, DPU got most attention and capital flowed into them especially into head chip players.
A total of $2.237 billion was raised by less than 100 major projects with over $5 million funding which accounted for only about 59.6% of all funds raised ($3.333 billion) among thousands of smaller projects totaling $2,237 billion (59.6%).
It seems that future Chinese semiconductor industry will show a pyramid structure with less than hundred leading enterprises and thousands specialized small ones focusing on data center, smart cars and manufacturing sectors according to Zhao Zhanxiang’s predictions from China Semiconductor Industry Association statistics showing an increase from around two thousand seven hundred eighty-one design houses last year up twenty-six point seven percent to nearly three thousand five hundred seventy-five now within twelve months until December twenty-first two thousand twenty-one; meaning if China wants to form this pyramid structure most semi-conductors would be either acquired or exit the market within next two years based on his observations.
The same thought echoed by Su Dong who sees American style acquisitions happening soon domestically too where larger public listed design houses could acquire smaller ones for scale gain rather than financial reasons alone but also due to limited liquidity on the Chiense stock exchange (Chieneze).
Another perspective shared by Wang Nan is different - he believes that mergers & acquisitions might be tough due cultural differences between Chinese people versus Americans; hence many entrepreneurs don't want out easily unless they're financially independent or can raise money further without selling out their stakes though others think otherwise given increased competition amid rising demand coupled with rapidly evolving technologies leading toward consolidation through strategic partnerships between key players – making room for new entrants while maintaining pace alongside established leaders within this ever-evolving landscape shaping tomorrow's world order we call "semi-tech".
